Billet
Billet price was
upward during last week in Iran from USD 578/mt to USD596/mt ex-work including
9% VAT, mainly due to higher global prices as well as rising ex-rate.
Long
Products
Rebar price started the week downward from
USD641/mt to USD 639 /mt due to lower currency rate, but with the increase in
ex-rate its price also took an upward trend to around USD 648/mt ex-work
including VAT.
I-beam price had a same trend from USD 643
/mt to USD 636/mt by mid-week and then improved to USD 656/mt ex-work including 9%
VAT by end of the week.
Flat
Products
Mobarakeh Steel co HRC 2 mm thickness was USD 1054/mt on Saturday, which
reached USD 1063/mt by Wednesday. Other items had a downward trend until
Monday, but as ex-rate rose, HRC price also increased.
Oxin co HRP had a strong market until Monday from USD 1231/mt to USD 1236/mt,
but after Tuesday the market fell to USD 1229/mt. According to many people
involved, its price is very high and needs to be corrected, even if we assume its
export price is USD 1000/mt, Oxin HRP price still has at least USD 139/mt
bubble. Market insiders mostly believe that Oxin co HRP won’t increase further.
Kavian Co HRP price trend was controlled by the mill and stayed at around USD 1075/mt
through the week.
CRC price didn’t fluctuate much during last week and changed from USD 1309/mt
to USD 1306/mt. Due to stable HRC price, HDG market was also faced with a quiet
market.
Weekly Analysis:
China has been sensitive currently to
rising steel prices and its impact on inflation rate, so it has taken steps to
reduce iron ore prices. Different analyzes are heard about global steel market price
trend and its impact on Iran domestic market. The simplest one is that global
steel prices have risen due to Chinese demand, and that Chinese government
price controls will lead to lower steel prices. There are other factors, such
as the amount of money printed ( money in circulation) around the world, end of
lockdowns and quarantine in Europe, unemployment rate, interest rate, inflation
rate in the United States and the global oil price.
Since steel is a core commodity, any of above
factors can affect steel price globally, but its impact on our domestic market
depends on the government policies. The fact is that current Iranian government
will not allow prices to rise until the transition of its power to the next
president ( as Presidential election will be held on 18th June). On
the other hand, lower steel prices will cause stock market index to fall and
create dissatisfaction that is not in the government's interest. Therefore,
whatever happens in global markets, will be controlled by government policies,
and the situation will continue until the next president takes office. Steel
market situation in the next presidential administration will depend on the
issue of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
CBI
weekly average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 215, 418 USD
17 May
2021
http://www.ifnaa.ir/en/news/57518