Billet: Iran domestic market billet price rose during last week due to the increase in DRI price and supply constraints.
Long Products
Rebar: Upward billet price pushed up rebar price while demand was weak.
I-beam: Lack of demand kept I-beam market quiet.
Flat Products
HRC: HRC market followed currency rate fluctuations. There was limited activity as market participants were waiting for Mobarakeh Steel co new offers.
HRP: Oxin co HRC price followed ex-rate fluctuations.
CRC: CRC price improved as ex-rate increased during last week in Iran domestic market.
HDG: Domestic HDG market also followed currency market changes during last week.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: The global market has been shocked by Trump's election. However, the Chinese plan for reconstruction has not yet shown itself, although there is great hope for it, but it will take time. Trump relies on domestic production and openly says that a country that does not have steel has no production. The current situation has made the markets uncertain. What is certain is that the conditions for the steel market will be disrupted with the arrival of Trump. The United States will limit steel imports. This will cause Chinese steel to invade global markets and lower prices. But this is not the only effect of Trump's plan. The disruption of exchange rates will show the first effect. This change will disrupt economic policies and global trade. Many events should be expected before Trump enters the White House because governments must prepare themselves for new conditions. What is certain is that the steel, coal, oil and gas markets will be affected by USA production.
In the domestic market: The domestic market was waiting for Iran's military moves until Tuesday, but after Trump's election, market’s attention turned to the currency changes. Ex-rate which was weak until Tuesday, rose from Wednesday. Iran's possible military action against Israel could severely disrupt currency rate. DRI supply has reached its minimum and its producers have turned to the government to manage gas outages.
This is while the problem of supplying gas to power plants is also seen. These conditions have limited the supply of billet. Billet producers are trying to increase exports, while they are facing a decrease in the supply of DRI and on the other hand, they are facing two problems: first, the downward trend in billet prices in the world due to competition from the Chinese. Second, the end of the year time limit, there are only two months left until the end of 2024, followed by the Christmas and Chinese holidays.
There are whispers of restrictions on the sale of billet to traders on the stock exchange. If this is realized, production of many mills will be affected due to the liquidity problem of re-rollers. Of course, demand condition is also a factor. We should expect a period of reduced supply, increased prices, and a deeper recession.
Flat products market is affected by slab. Slab is exported while flat productsd emand is low. The reality is that only semi- finished market is active in Iran, which is active by export demand. If export market is disrupted, the domestic market will be severly shocked.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 492,622/ 1USD
11 Nov 2024
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM