Last month, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered reported that global oil demand hit an all-time high of 103.79 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August, marking the third successive month in which a new all-time demand high has been set. According to StanChart, global oil demand growth clocked in at a healthy 1.32 mb/d in August. Well, it appears that oil markets are poised to finish the year on a bullish note.
On Tuesday, the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) released its latest oil market report. Following the release, StanChart has worked out that global oil demand in September clocked in at 103.012 million barrels per day (mb/d), the fourth consecutive month global demand has ever exceeded 103 mb/d. The y/y increase in demand in September was 1.136 mb/d, slightly below the average of 1.332 mb/d YTD but an improvement on August, when growth was just 0.631 mb/d.
Previously, StanChart pointed out that oil demand growth, not absolute oil demand, is what has been slowing down from earlier post-pandemic years. Indeed, StanChart has noted that global oil demand has been setting a series of new all-time highs in the current year.
StanChart reported that the largest demand gains in August came from Korea (219 kb/d), Italy (185 kb/d), Saudi Arabia (117 kb/d), Türkey (99 kb/d) and Spain (88 kb/d). StanChart has now revised its 2024 global demand growth estimate upwards to 1.45 mb/d, thanks to the bigger-than-expected growth in August.
Russia’s Crude Oil Shipments Slump
StanChart points out that traders continue to ignore the fact that non-OPEC supply has slowed more than demand so far in 2024. According to estimates by the IEA, non-OPEC supply growth
slowed down from 2.40 mb/d in 2023 to 0.93 mb/d in 2024, while demand growth slowed down from 1.99 mb/d in 2023 to 0.86 mb/d in 2024. The IEA, therefore, estimates that non-OPEC supply in 2024 has grown slower than supply in 2023 by 1.47 mb/d while demand has slowed by a smaller margin of 1.13 mb/d. Other energy agencies have come up with even larger relative supply-side slowdown estimates than the IEA. For instance, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that non-OPEC supply has slowed by 1.89 mb/d from a year ago (from 2.52 mb/d in 2023 to 0.63 mb/d in 2024) while demand has slowed by 1.19 mb/d (from 2.10mb/d in 2023 to 0.91mb/d in 2024). StanChart estimates that non-OPEC supply has slowed by 1.83 mb/d in 2024 (from 2.50 mb/d in 2023 to 0.67 mb/d in 2024) while demand growth has slowed by 0.60 mb/d (from 2.05 mb/d in 2023 to 1.45 mb/d in 2024).
Regarding the mid-and longer-term outlook, StanChart has reported that its model (and the EIA’s) shows that market conditions would allow all the OPEC+ voluntary cuts being rolled back in 2025 without inventories increasing more than would be warranted by higher demand (about 0.3mb/d) if OPEC+ countries keep to targets and payback some past overproduction. The commodity experts have predicted that actions by OPEC+ are likely to determine the near-and mid-term oil price trajectory. According to StanChart, much of the negative sentiment that has dominated oil markets over the past three months can be chalked up to misapprehensions about the tapering mechanism for the voluntary cuts made by eight OPEC+ countries. Many traders are worried that the balance of oil demand growth and non-OPEC+ supply growth might not offset the scale of restored OPEC+output, leaving oil markets oversupplied. However, the experts have pointed out that this assumption flies in the face of continued reassurances from OPEC+ members that the tapering would be fully dependent on market conditions rather than being automatic. Trader focus has been on the question of how many barrels could be returned before a surplus emerged; however, positioning and price dynamics imply that the answer to that question is zero. In a November 3 press release, OPEC announced that output increases would be postponed by a month until the start of 2025. StanChart says the delayed return of more barrels to the market does not necessarily mean that OPEC felt the physical market could not absorb the oil, but rather reflects its awareness that extremely pessimistic 2025 oil balance predictions have viewed the tapering through that lens. StanChart says the latest announcement by OPEC strengthens the case that the pace of tapering will be market-dependent and not automatic as traders fear. This realization is likely to have driven the latest oil price rally.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com