Industry groups are doubling down on calls for the U.S. Administration to lift the pause on LNG export permits, a day after Biden’s Department of Energy urged caution in approvals and a month ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.
The DOE study on the energy, economic, and environmental impact of U.S. LNG exports comes nearly a year after the Biden Administration halted in January all pending decisions on U.S. LNG export projects until the Department of Energy can update the underlying analyses for authorizations.
Biden DOE Study: Higher Domestic Prices and Emissions
The study is now out, and it says that unrestricted LNG exports could raise domestic natural gas prices at the Henry Hub by 31% to 2050, from $3.53/MMBtu to $4.62/MMBtu, in 2022 U.S. dollar prices.
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“Higher U.S. LNG export levels in 2050 are associated with higher U.S. residential natural gas prices,” the study also says.
Commenting on the study’s findings, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said, “The main takeaway is that a business-as-usual approach is neither sustainable nor advisable.”
The findings of the DOE study are meant to inform the Department’s future decisions when reviewing new permits for U.S. LNG export facilities, as it should base its approvals and authorizations on whether more exports are in the public interest.
DOE will open a 60-day comment period on this draft analysis.
Environmental campaigners cheered the findings of the study, which, they say, “provide clear evidence of LNG’s climate, economic, national security, and public health dangers.”
However, trade groups, including the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, urged faster permitting and called the study “politically motivated”.
“Politically Motivated”
“It’s time to lift the pause on new LNG export permits and restore American energy leadership around the world,” API President and CEO Mike Sommers said in a statement.
“After nearly a year of a politically motivated pause that has only weakened global energy security, it’s never been clearer that U.S. LNG is critical for meeting growing demand for affordable, reliable energy while supporting our allies overseas.”
API argues that even at record-high U.S. LNG exports, domestic residential natural gas prices fell in 2023 and are among the lowest in the world. That’s because the industry has the ability to meet rising global demand for natural gas while maintaining a well-supplied domestic market, it added.
Moreover, higher LNG exports drive economic growth in the U.S. and reduce America’s trade deficit—key points for incoming President Trump.
The U.S. LNG industry has contributed more than $400 billion to GDP over the past decade, supports about 275,000 jobs, and represents roughly $34 billion in exports, a new study from S&P Global cited by API showed.
U.S. LNG has also played an important role in keeping Europe supplied with natural gas after Russia cut off most of its pipeline gas deliveries to the EU following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Finally, coal-to-gas switching is the main reason that the U.S. has led the world in reducing CO2 emissions over the past two decades, API said, citing a recent study by Berkeley Research Group.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Senior Vice President of Policy, Marty Durbin, also called for an immediate end to the LNG permit pause.
“From the beginning, the White House moratorium on new LNG export facilities was a politically-driven exercise with harmful impacts on the U.S. economy and the energy security of America’s allies. It should end immediately,” Durbin said, commenting on the DOE study.
“We will thoroughly review the DOE report, but it appears to rely on questionable methodology and puts a thumb on the scale to downplay the clear economic, environmental and security benefits of U.S. LNG,” added Durbin.
President Trump and LNG
The renewed debate on LNG permitting comes a month before President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House and enacts – most likely – sweeping changes to U.S. energy policy, including expediting LNG export permits. Boosting U.S. oil and gas drilling and accelerating permits for domestic energy infrastructure and LNG exports are expected to be top priorities for the new administration.
In a sign of what the energy industry can expect, Trump last month picked a shale boss, Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, as his nomination to lead the Department of Energy. Wright is a vocal critic of the energy transition as envisaged by most Western governments to date, instead calling for energy realism and prioritizing the supply security and affordability of energy rather than its emission footprint.
As the industry calls for faster approvals of energy infrastructure, including LNG export plants, the U.S. remains the world’s largest LNG exporter, ahead of Qatar and Australia.
America’s LNG exports are set to rise slightly this year but still beat the previous annual export record from 2023.
But next year, U.S. LNG exports are expected to jump by 15% over 2024, reaching almost 14 Bcf/d, thanks to higher export capacity with the Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 plants, the EIA said in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for December.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com