Billet: Thanks to the increase in ex- rate and supply restriction, billet price
rose, but by the end of the week there were signs of a decline as the market
did not have the capacity to accept higher price.
Long Products
Rebar: Rebar price improved due
to limited billet supply and rising exchange rate.
I-beam: Price of this product increased due to the change in
exchange rate too.
Flat Products
HRC: The exchange rate change caused HRC price
to rise, but demand remained weak.
HRP: Supply management and currency rate appreciation drove up prices.
CRC: Higher ex-rate caused CRC price to rise,
but demand was weak.
HDG: Due to the
increase in the price of several thin sizes and higher ex-rate, HDG price improved.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: The global market is waiting for the New Year holidays, so demand is weak. Billet and scrap are in weak demand and finished steel
products market is also experiencing the same, while Chinese steel dumping into
world markets continues. On the
other hand, the situation of producers in Europe is not good.
From next year, the Middle East region will
face an increase in steel production. The only hope for global steel production is the reconstruction of Gaza,
Lebanon and Syria, with the money from Persian Gulf oil or the return of Iran
to the world market.
In the domestic market: Gas and electricity shortage is pressuring steel production a lot, and in
the meantime, the government is thinking about the budget deficit, which has
caused the exchange rate to increase. It is possible that, according to the head of the Central
Bank, we will see a decrease in the exchange rate in the coming days, but the
increase in production costs necessitates the need for an increase in the exchange
rate. The capital market, especially in the case of banks, also needs a new
exchange rate.
The power shortage problem has two different
effects on steel. In the supply sector, it targets a decrease in production, but if this
problem continues in the downstream sector, it will also reduce demand. As we are witnessing in the case of flat products,
prices has increased, but its demand is decreasing because there is no
consumption.
The government has forced most mills to invest
in solar energy, which will increase their fixed costs. Next year, structure of the Iran steel market will be different, but what
should be considered in the short time, which will be effective until the end
of Iranian year (20 March 2025), is the budget deficit issue.
CBI
average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 632,680/ 1USD
23 Dec 2024
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News
Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM