Donald Trump's plan to recoup U.S. funds spent on Ukraine's self-defense holds significant potential, but is accompanied by several contingencies, question marks and potential drawbacks.
The deal could mark the first major foreign policy win of the new administration—addressing Republican concerns about the costs of aiding Ukraine, while also providing a repayment mechanism that alleviates some of the political obstacles for future assistance.
The specific details of the agreement and plans for its execution remain scarce, and the deal faces several pitfalls before it can be declared a victory for the U.S. president.
What Is Trump's Minerals Deal With Ukraine?
According to a copy of the deal published by the Financial Times, in compensation for America's "significant financial and material support to Ukraine," the country will vest a share of its natural resources into a "Reconstruction Investment Fund," jointly owned and managed by the two nations.
Though the text of the deal does not put a price tag on how much will be placed in the fund by Ukraine, it states that Kyiv will contribute "50 percent of all revenues earned from the future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets...defined as deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, and other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure)."
Washington has dropped its demand for $500 billion worth of the country's rare earth mineral deposits, which does not feature in the text of the deal, and which Zelensky previously said he would not accept.
When asked on Tuesday what Ukraine would gain in return for granting the U.S. partial ownership of its resources, Trump responded: "$350 billion and lots of equipment, military equipment, and the right to fight on," repeating the sum he claims the country has so far received from the U.S. However, the $350 billion figure contradicts estimates provided by the Kiel Institute, a think tank that has monitored assistance to Ukraine since the launch of Russia's invasion, and which places U.S. assistance at approximately 114.2 billion euros ($119 billion).
The U.S. Department of Defense has a higher estimate of $182.8 billion, which also takes into account the costs of providing training and other forms of less direct support.
The plan has reportedly been in the works for several months, presented by Zelensky to then-candidate Trump back in September, according to Reuters, and previously suggested as a potential repayment mechanism by several Republican lawmakers prior to this.
Why Trump's Minerals Deal Could Fall Through
According to the World Economic Forum, Ukraine possesses around 5 percent of the world's "critical raw materials," and Kyiv claims to have some of the world's largest deposits of graphite, lithium, titanium, beryllium and uranium.
However, an absence of concrete data on its geological wealth has led many to question just how extensive these resources are, or how easy it would be to extract and profit from them in the near future.
Though Kyiv claims to possess 20,000 "surveyed deposits and ore-bearing sites comprising 97 types of minerals," only 8,000 of these have been "proven," and under half of these are currently being mined. These statistics were compiled prior to the Russian invasion, which experts say has caused significant damage to its extraction infrastructure and resulted in "reduced capacity utilization."
"Ukraine, aside from obvious political obstacles, has a large problem with inventorying," said Wesley A. Hill, who manages the Energy, Growth, and Security Program at the International Tax and Investment Center. "We know that Ukraine has rare earth elements and some companies like BGV are involved in surveying, however most of the Soviet-era inventorying was actually kept in Moscow and not made available to Ukraine when the USSR collapsed."
Extraction would also be costly, with the Ukrainian Geological Survey estimating in 2023 that realizing its 10 largest minerals projects would require $15 billion in funding.
This is in addition to the costs associated with reconstructing Ukraine following years of war—$524 billion according to a joint report from the World Bank, the Government of Ukraine, the European Union and the United Nations.
Any potential dividends—whether financial or political—could remain unrealized for years, meaning Trump's presidency would likely end before he could receive any credit for the "very big agreement" with Ukraine.
Not all of Ukraine's critical minerals are in Ukrainian-controlled regions. On Sunday, the country's economic minister and deputy prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, said that $350 billion worth of the country's "critical materials" remain in Russian-occupied territories.
Consequently, the potential profits for Ukraine—and by extension, the U.S.—could be further diminished, though Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently proposed granting the Trump access to these resources.
The deal's text also provides no concrete security guarantees for Ukraine from the U.S., allowing Kyiv to either push for such assurances or potentially refuse the agreement if its defense is not ensured.
"I wanted to have a sentence on security guarantees for Ukraine, and it's important that it's there," Zelensky told the BBC this week. During the visit to D.C. mentioned by Trump, the Ukrainian president added that he would be "very direct" and demand assurances of continued support from Washington.
Zelensky has been handed extra leverage in any negotiations with Trump over Ukraine's natural resources, thanks to Europe expressing similar interest in these assets.
Stéphane Séjourné, the European Commission's vice president for prosperity and industrial strategy, recently stated that the EU would be presenting its own minerals agreement to Ukraine, and that he had already proposed this to the country's officials during a visit to Kyiv.
"Twenty-one of the 30 critical materials Europe needs can be provided by Ukraine in a win-win partnership," Séjourné said, as quoted by AFP.
"The added value Europe offers is that we will never demand a deal that's not mutually beneficial," he added, a remark which appears to take aim at Trump's refusal to offer Kyiv security guarantees.
Ryan Kiggins, political science professor at the University of Central Oklahoma, told Newsweek that Trump appears to be "leveraging U.S. support for Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression to secure access to rare earths and other critical minerals for the U.S. economy."
"Beneath the surface, however, this may be a calculated move to justify withdrawing support altogether—framing Ukraine as unwilling to meet Trump administration conditions," he added. "Ukraine understands this reality and is left with little choice but to negotiate on Trump's terms to maintain U.S. support."
What People Are Saying
Wesley A. Hill of the International Tax and Investment Center told Newsweek: "We simply do not actually have a great idea of what minerals are available in what quantities in Ukraine aside from vague ideas that there is a lot, and roughly in what regions they are kept. That alone is a risky proposition for mining companies, especially with mines being a generational venture, and that is before you introduce political risk."
Speaking at the "Ukraine. Year 2025" forum earlier this week, Zelensky said he would not be interested in signing anything "that will have to be repaid by generations and generations of Ukrainians," in response to the initial drafts of the U.S. deal, which demanded $500 billion of Ukraine's natural resources.
Referring to the need for security guarantees before any pen is put to paper, Zelensky said: "The security guarantees from Trump is something that we really need. I would like to talk with him."
What Happens Next
Trump has said that the deal—described by Kyiv officials as "preliminary"—could be signed as soon as Friday, when Zelensky is rumored to be making a tripping to the U.S. capital.
In a Wednesday evening video address, Zelensky confirmed that he would be meeting with Trump soon, and that negotiations could take place "as early as this Friday." However, he did not commit to signing the latest draft of the minerals agreement.
"I will meet with President Trump," he said. "For me and for all of us in the world, it is crucial that America's assistance is not stopped. Strength is essential on the path to peace."
Newsweek