China is planning new measures to boost its flagging birth rate and address its growing elderly population, but one analyst warns that more action may be needed to prevent a demographic collapse.
Why It Matters
Despite a baby bump in 2024, widely attributed to the end of China's strict pandemic-era policies, births have been in steady decline for years. The country's fertility rate last year stood at just 1.0 births per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to sustain population growth.
This downward trend has persisted despite the end of the One-Child Policy and a wave of pro-natal measures. At the same time, China is steadily moving toward what the United Nations (U.N.) classifies as a "super-aged" society. The working-age population (ages 14 to 64) is expected to shrink from 70 to 64 percent by 2040, posing a long-term drag on the world's second-largest economy.
What To Know
Documents submitted ahead of the annual session of China's rubber-stamp congress this week outline measures aimed at softening the impact of an aging population while encouraging younger couples to have more children.
One such measure includes a modest increase in minimum basic benefits for elderly people in rural areas and unemployed individuals in cities, Reuters reported this week. Another initiative seeks to expand services for people with disabilities in China's often-neglected rural regions.
Premier Li Qiang also highlighted plans to "prudently advance the reform to gradually raise" the statutory retirement age, a change that officially began this year—marking the first adjustment in decades.
Policymakers are also proposing subsidies for early childcare and expanding services for women in the early stages of pregnancy, without giving more details, according to Reuters' report.
Reuters also reported that Chinese authorities have tried to roll out incentives and measures to encourage couples to have babies, which include expanding maternity leave, financial and tax benefits for having children as well as housing subsidies.
However, the high cost of raising children and workplace discrimination are frequently cited as key reasons why many Chinese women delay childbirth in favor of career advancement.
Xiujian Peng, senior research fellow at Victoria University's Centre of Policy Studies in Melbourne, told Newsweek: "Without comprehensive reforms, these efforts may have only a marginal effect on reversing declining fertility trends."
"International experience suggests that more comprehensive policies tend to be more effective. For example, France successfully increased its fertility rate from 1.64 in 1993 to 1.8–1.9 between the 1990s and 2010s, while Denmark saw a rise from 1.38 in 1983 to 1.7–1.8 over the same period."
She added: "Both countries achieved this by implementing a policy mix of high subsidies, universal childcare, and flexible work arrangements. These measures not only reduce the financial burden of childrearing but also help parents—especially women—balance work and family life more effectively."
What Happens Next?
It remains to be seen how these new policies will take shape after the National People's Congress concludes next week.
However, like its neighbors Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, China is likely to see its birth rate continue to decline as shifting social attitudes and economic pressures deter younger generations from having larger families.
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