Even before winning the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump was vocal about his intent to levy tariffs against trade partners Canada, China, and Mexico.
President Trump’s escalation of trade tensions in recent months has led to uncertainty in the agriculture sector of the economy, as an already challenged farm economy may face reciprocal tariffs from some of its largest trading partners.
Below is a timeline of the situation and coverage from Successful Farming.
Timeline
Oct. 17, 2024
Prior to the election, a study commissioned by the American Soybean Association (ASA) and the National Corn Growers Association (NGCA) found that “U.S. corn and soybean farmers could lose billions of dollars in annual production value in the event of a potential new tariff-induced U.S.-China trade war,” depending on how China responded to U.S. tariffs promised by Trump as a candidate.
New U.S.-China Trade War Could Cost Farmers Billions
Nov. 4, 2024
An Iowa farmer and multiple economists expressed concern over Trump’s stated intent to levy a 60% tariff on goods from China. Economists said “Trump’s tariff plans, likely his most consequential economic policy, would push U.S. import duty rates back up to 1930s-era levels, stoke inflation, collapse U.S.-China trade, draw retaliation, and drastically reorder supply chains, according to Reuters.”
Trump’s Tariffs Would Reorder Trade Flows, Raise Costs, Draw Retaliation
Nov. 26, 2024
After winning the election, Trump said one of his first executive orders after taking office would be placing a 25% tariff on all products coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. Trump accused Chinese President Xi Jinping of “not taking strong enough action to stop the flow of illicit drugs crossing the border into the U.S. from Mexico,” Reuters reported.
Trump Promises 25% Tariff on Canada and Mexico
Dec. 2, 2024
Trump nominated Jamison Greer (later confirmed on Feb. 26, 2025) to be the U.S. Trade Representative. Greer was the chief of staff for USTR in Trump’s first administration, and Trump said Greer played a key role “in imposing tariffs on China and others to combat unfair trade practices and replacing the failed NAFTA with [the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA)].”
‘Tariff Man’ Trump Picks Trade Hawk to Run USTR
Dec. 5, 2024
American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Roger Cryan said he would prefer Trump and the U.S. negotiate with Canada and Mexico before applying harsh tariffs.
“I think it’s important, when we’re talking about friends like Mexico and Canada, that we talk first,” said Cryan. “And think about shooting later.”
Negotiate Before Applying Tariffs, Farm Bureau Says
Dec. 31, 2024
At the end of 2024, CoBank reported that policy uncertainty and the potential for trade wars, coupled with other factors, could be negative not just for the U.S. rural market, but for the world ag commodities market, as well.
U.S., Global Ag Economies Face Uncertainties Heading Into 2025
Jan. 7, 2025
Trump pushed back against a Washington Post report that his aides were considering cutting down on his near-universal plans for import tariffs once he got into office.
“The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don’t exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong,” Trump said on the Truth Social network.
Trump Says He Won’t Narrow Universal Tariff Plans
Jan. 8, 2025
Agricultural input companies, worried about the potential impact of tariffs once Trump took office, began 2025 by front-loading import shipments.
U.S. Agricultural Input Suppliers Preparing for 2025 Trade Friction
Jan. 16, 2025
Analysts said China approved “a tranche of new biotech crop varieties and announced plans to accelerate breeding to boost yields — the latest chapter in a long-running drive for greater self-sufficiency,” according to Agri-Pulse. The moves signaled China’s push to be more formidable in the event of a trade war.
China Accelerates Crop Breeding Amid Food Security, Trade Concern
Jan. 21, 2025
Now in office, Trump did not immediately impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. He announced he would push the implementation of those duties to Feb. 1.
Trump Says Canada, Mexico May Get 25% Tariff by Feb. 1
Jan. 22, 2025
In response to the Trump Administration’s talk of tariffs, Farmdoc’s Joana Colussi, Gary Schnitkey, and Nick Paulson took a wide-lens look at agricultural trade over the years, with particular focus on corn and soybean exports.
U.S. Agricultural Trade Background Given Potential Tariffs
Trump declared plans for an additional 10% tariffs against China would go into effect Feb. 1, citing claims of China “sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada.” He also threatened to put tariffs on countries in the European Union.
Trump Preparing 10% Tariff on China in February
Jan. 24, 2025
In confirmation hearings in the Senate, now Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins vowed to “provide another round of financial aid if farmers are hurt by a trade war sparked by increased tariffs.”
Rollins Pledges Aid for Farmers in Case of Trade War, Defends Deportation Plan
In a speech to various government leaders in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said companies that didn’t create their products in America would have to deal with tariffs — and claimed those tariffs would generate trillions of dollars in revenue.
Trump Hints at Broader Tariffs, Blasts Partners’ Unfair Trade in Davos Speech
Jan. 30, 2025
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said that while she didn’t believe tariffs against Mexico would go into effect, the country did have a plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., with sources telling Reuters that tariffs would likely be targeted at the automotive industry.
Mexico Readying Retaliatory Tariffs, Potentially Targeting U.S. Ag
Jan. 31, 2025
Trump confirmed he planned to implement 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada on Feb. 1 — a threat from before his inauguration. He cited immigration, fentanyl, and trade deficits as the reason.
Trump Confirms Mexico, Canada 25% Tariffs Coming Saturday
Feb. 3, 2025
Trump signed three executive orders placing tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China — all of which were set to take effect Feb. 4. Mexico and Canada had 25% duties levied with Canada’s energy imports at a lower 10%.
Trump Sets ‘Emergency’ Tariffs on Canada, China, Mexico, Starting Tuesday
Canada announced immediate retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in an initial tranche of products including orange juice, peanut butter, and beer, among others. Mexico also announced the planning of “tariff and non-tariff measures.”
Canada Announces In-Kind Tariffs on U.S. Ag; Mexico Plans Retaliation, Too
Michigan was in a potential crossfire for tariffs, as it imported more goods from Canada, Mexico, and China than any other U.S. state. In total, Michigan imported 19% of its goods from the three countries, according to an analysis from Finch Ratings.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer issued a statement saying the decision will raise costs on goods and services critical to Michiganders, per the Michigan Advance.
Michigan Braces for Fallout as Trump Tariffs Target State’s Top 3 Trading Partners
Less than 48 hours after signing an executive order announcing the tariffs, Trump announced delays to the duties against Mexico and Canada. He claimed victories in border security from both countries, while Mexico President Claudia Steinbaum said on the social media network X that the agreement included a U.S. commitment to prevent trafficking of high-powered weapons to Mexico.
Mexico and Canada Say Trump Will Pause Tariffs for One Month
Tariffs against China went into effect.
Mexico, Canada Tariffs Delayed 30 Days as Trump Claims Border Security Wins
Feb. 5, 2025
China’s Ministry of Finance announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. Those duties mostly avoided agricultural commodities, although ag machinery and natural gas were targeted with duties ranging from 10–15%.
Beijing Hits Ag Machinery but Spares Commodities in Tariff Retaliation
Farmdoc took a look at the reliance U.S. farmers have on Canada, China, and Mexico for fertilizer imports — including on the individual components of many fertilizers used by farmers — and the impact tariffs could have on the availability of those inputs.
Tariff Threats and U.S. Fertilizer Imports
Feb. 6, 2025
Despite delays in tariffs from Mexico and Canada, there was concern about the potential for price increases for farm inputs.
“Additional tariffs on imports from China is going to make it more expensive to make equipment in the U.S.,” Kip Eideberg, senior vice president at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, told Agri-Pulse.
Even With Tariff Delays, Farm Inputs Face Lasting Price Effects
Farmers warned senators that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy was only adding to the long-standing difficulties facing the ag economy.
Farmers Warn Senators Policy Uncertainty Weighing on U.S. Ag Economy
Feb. 11, 2025
Republicans in Congress expressed an unwillingness to push back against Trump’s use of executive powers to levy tariffs on trade partners — a contrast from the first Trump administration.
“I’m going to give Trump some discretion on using that in an effective way,” said Rep. Darin LaHood, R-Ill.. “I don’t like the ramifications on inflation and how it affects agriculture, but I think we’re going to give him some discretion.”
Republicans Willing to Give Trump Wide Discretion on Emergency Tariff Powers
Feb. 12, 2025
Trump increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 25%, with duties set to go into effect March 12. People in the ag sector worried that U.S. trade allies could end up being most impacted by these duties — and could retaliate at the expense of the farm economy.
Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Return – Will Ag Exports Suffer Again?
Feb. 13, 2025
Initial retaliations from Canada and China spared agriculture commodities. But machinery was still in the crossfire, putting ag inputs at risk of scarcity and higher prices.
Tariff Retaliations Target U.S. Farm Equipment, But Key Crop Exports Spared
Feb. 14, 2025
A newly signed Trump executive order laid the groundwork for reciprocal tariffs against a number of U.S. trade partners to go into effect in April, which Trump said could cause prices to rise on food products. Trump said these duties would help farmers “very much.”
Trump’s Executive Order Sets Stage for ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs — Admits Prices ‘Could Go Up In the Short Term’
Feb. 18, 2025
Trump’s intent on levying reciprocal tariffs against trade partners could overhaul U.S. trade with positive and negative impacts, said a former U.S. trade negotiator.
Reciprocal Tariffs ‘Game Changer’ for Trade, but Questions Remain for U.S. Ag
Feb. 25, 2025
After delaying the tariffs against Mexico and Canada for a month, Trump said he intended to put them into effect on March 4, saying the 25% duties would resume “on schedule.”
Trump Says 25% Canada, Mexico Tariffs ‘Going Forward’
Feb. 27, 2025
Trump caused confusion when he initially told reporters in a press gathering that tariffs against Mexico and Canada would go into effect on April 2. The White House walked back these comments, clarifying that the March 4 date was the expected start date for duties against the U.S. allies.
Trump ‘Causes Confusion’ With Comments on Mexico and Canada Tariffs
Feb. 28, 2025
Trump clarified his comments and confirmed 25% duties would go into effect against Canada and Mexico on March 4, while adding an additional 10% tariff on goods from China.
Canada and Mexico Tariffs Will Start March 4, Trump Says
March 3, 2025
A panel discussed the potential negative impacts of upcoming tariffs on the weekly Agri-Pulse Newsmaker show.
Navigating the Ag Economy: Falling Row Crop Prices and Rising Livestock Values Projected Amid Tariff Uncertainty
In addition, China announced it was planning countermeasures for additional tariffs levied by the U.S. — targeting agriculture exports. Trump then signed an executive order bumping tariffs on imports from China up to 20% from the previous 10% duties imposed in February.
China Readying Tariff Countermeasures on U.S. Agriculture
Trump Hikes China Tariffs, Says Mexico and Canada Duties on the Way
March 4, 2025
China upped its retaliation to U.S. tariffs by suspending the license of three U.S. soybean importers: CHS Inc, global grains exporter Louis Dreyfus Company Grains Merchandising LLC, and export grain terminal operator EGT.
China Hits U.S. Soybean Firms, Halts Lumber Imports as It Steps up Retaliation Against Trump Tariffs
Tariffs on Mexico and Canada took effect, putting up to $2.2 trillion in yearly trade in doubt. Trump said additional tariffs would take hold on April 2.
Trump Triggers Trade War, Price Hikes With Tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico
Reuters reported that worries about the potential impact of tariffs and retaliation from key trade partner Mexico were especially notable for Illinois, where 40% of all corn exports that travel by train originated in 2024.
With Trump’s Tariffs, Illinois Farmers Worry About Losing Corn Sales to Mexico
March 5, 2025
Farm organizations, members of Congress, commodity organizations, and state-level ag groups reacted to the new tariffs with frustration and concern. “Farmers support the goals of ensuring security and fair trade with other nations, but additional tariffs, along with expected retaliatory tariffs, will take a toll on rural America,” said American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall.
‘Promises Alone Won’t Pay the Bills’: Reactions Roll in as Tariffs and New Trade Wars Put Ag Industry on High Alert
Ag Secretary Rollins implored members of the National Association of Counties to trust Trump’s tariff strategy and said the administration was considering using the Commodity Credit Corporation to compensate farmers impacted by the latest trade wars.
Rollins Reassures County Officials, Asks Them to Trust Trump on Tariffs
China placed 15% tariffs on U.S. imports such as chicken, cotton, wheat, and corn, with soybeans and pork subject to 10% duties. Canada implemented an opening wave of tariffs covering $20 billion in U.S. goods, with the promise of a further $86 billion in imports taking effect in 21 days.
Canada, China Retaliate Against U.S. Ag Exports
China then signaled its readiness to increase imports from Brazil, Netherlands, and Spain.
China to Boost Food Imports From Latin America, Europe as U.S. Trade War Escalates
March 6, 2025
Just over 24 hours into the full implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, decisions were made by U.S. ag equipment companies dealing with the possibility of rising input costs.
On Day One, Tariffs Prompt Tough Decisions For Ag Input Firms
March 7, 2025
Trump backed off of the full-on 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, instead carving out exemptions for all goods imported from the two countries that comply with USMCA. This covered roughly 38% of all Canadian imports and 50% of Mexican imports. In addition, Trump lessened the tariff on potash imports from Canada to 10%.
Trump Delays Tariffs for Some Mexican and Canadian Products, Lowers Potash Duty
The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will factor in the tariffs placed against Canada, Mexico, and China into its estimates, said Joanna Hitchner, an agricultural economist for USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
Aljazeera